Week 6 Statistical Review

October 11, 2017

Since I finished my Y1P+ system recently, and it can provide more granular data than just looking at final scores, I'll be using that system instead of my main system for weekly grades for the rest of the season.


Highest Graded Teams (Percentile Performance)

1. Mount Union - win over Heidelberg 63-7 (100.0%)

2. UW-Oshkosh - win over UW-Stevens Point 49-14 (99.9%)

3. St. John's - win over Augsburg 49-3 (99.9%)

4. Johns Hopkins - win over Franklin and Marshall 45-7 (99.8%)

5. Westminster Pa. - win over St. Vincent 66-12 (99.8%)

6. St. Thomas - win over Concordia-Moorhead 21-0 (99.7%)

7. Wartburg - win over Central 44-20 (99.4%)

8. Hobart - loss to RPI 30-0 (99.4%)

9. North Central - win over North Park 33-0 (99.3%)

10. Mary Hardin-Baylor - win over Hardin-Simmons 17-7 (99.3%)


Mount Union keeps their streak of Top 2 performances alive. Beat a Top 15 opponent by more than 50 points? Yeah, you'll get the top grade for the week.


UW-Oshkosh's performance went under the radar last week, but they beat Top 30 team by 35, and they did it in about 25% fewer drives than Mount Union did. They're not flashy, but they're as dominant in every phase of the game as anyone in the country each week. 


I also saw some gripes from Saint John's fans after their game, which is... baffling. They were +4.0 in yards per play, +40% in first down rate, and +3.7 points per drive. There's a word for that sort of thing: dominance.


And you know I'm gonna talk about Wartburg when they crack the Top 10. They've been dominant in their last two outings against the teams who finished #1 & #2 in the IIAC last year, behind one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The Central announcers said it pretty well during the game, that even Wartburg's worst plays were going for 4 yards. They didn't have their first 2nd & 10 until the end of the 3rd quarter. They're good at football.

Highest Graded Offenses (Percentile Performance)

1. Mount Union - 8.93 YPP, 87.5% FD%, 4.38 PPD vs. Heidelberg (100.0%)

2. UW-Oshkosh - 8.62 YPP, 88.9% FD%, 4.45 PPD vs. UW-Stevens Point (100.0%)

3. Westminster Pa. - 8.70 YPP, 91.7% FD%, 5.45 PPD vs. St. Vincent (100.0%)

4. Ohio Northern - 10.72 YPP, 91.7% FD%, 5.10 PPD vs. Capital (100.0%)

5. Western Connecticut - 6.64 YPP, 91.9% FD%, 4.90 PPD vs. Worcester State (99.9%)

6. Gallaudet - 13.66 YPP, 88.2% FD%, 4.79 PPD vs. Anna Maria (99.8%)

7. Wartburg - 6.41 YPP, 89.5% FD%, 4.40 PPD vs. Central (99.8%)

8. Johns Hopkins - 8.28 YPP, 79.5% FD%, 3.21 PPD vs. Franklin and Marshall (99.5%)

9. Randolph-Macon - 7.49 YPP, 80.0% FD%, 4.00 PPD vs. Bridgewater (99.4%)

10. Lakeland - 7.92 YPP, 84.8% FD%, 3.92 PPD vs. Adrian (99.4%)


Yes, these ratings are adjusted for opponent, so to make this list against a defense like Worcester State (4 points per game worse than average) or Anna Maria (24 ppg worse than average), you really need to dominate. Gallaudet's stat line is utterly ridiculous. Nearly 14 yards per play? Running the triple option? Are you kidding me?


Randolph-Macon and Ohio Northern also had dominant days on the ground, with ONU going off for 470, and RMC for 394 (excluding sack yards), and each team landed their running backs on the D3Football.com Team of the Week.

Highest Graded Defenses (Percentile Performance)

1. Mary Hardin-Baylor - 2.65 YPP, 45.8% FD%, 0.50 PPD vs. Hardin-Simmons (100.0%)

2. St. Thomas - 2.12 YPP, 33.3% FD%, 0.00 PPD vs. Concordia-Moorhead (100.0%)

3. Mount Union - 3.68 YPP, 51.9% FD%, 0.50 PPD vs. Heidelberg (100.0%)

4. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps - 2.22 YPP, 33.3% FD%, 0.00 PPD vs. Occidental (100.0%)

5. UW-Whitewater - 3.25 YPP, 53.8% FD%, 0.00 PPD vs. UW-Stout (100.0%)

6. Hardin-Simmons - 4.91 YPP, 47.6% FD%, 0.92 PPD vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor (99.9%)

7. St. John's - 3.15 YPP, 43.5% FD%, 0.23 PPD vs. Augsburg (99.9%)

8. UW-Stout - 3.40 YPP, 60.0% FD%, 1.17 PPD vs. UW-Whitewater (99.8%)

9. Concordia-Moorhead - 4.13 YPP, 63.0% FD%, 1.62 PPD vs. St. Thomas (99.7%)

10. Johns Hopkins - 3.01 YPP, 55.2% FD%, 0.50 PPD vs. Franklin and Marshall (99.7%)


You'll notice that all of these stats I'm using to determine these grades are pace independent, so while it may seem strange to see six of these Top 10 spots occupied by teams who played each other last week, it's not because each of those games were inherently slow-paced. If you disagree with this in principle, I encourage you to look at the scores those offenses were putting up in their other games this season.


Mary Hardin-Baylor this week absolutely shut down one of the three best offenses in the country. Hardin-Simmons had two receivers in my Preseason All-American teams (Bell & Childress), and combined they had four catches for 20 yards). For some perspective, if UMHB's defensive grade from this game were their "true" skill, this defense coupled with an average offense would be favored by 1 point against Mount Union in a neutral field.


St. Thomas' performance may be a bit too high, given that Concordia was playing with a freshman quarterback. But I would still argue that a "replacement level" quarterback in that offense would still produce a ~Top 50 offense. And the Tommies didn't let them cross the 50 the entire game.

Biggest Upsets (Predicted Line)

1. Millikin - win over Wheaton 35-31 (+29.0)

2. Buena Vista - win over Dubuque 44-41 (+25.1)

3. St. Olaf - win over Hamline 40-33 (+15.6)

4. Dickinson - win over McDaniel 13-10 (+12.1)

5. Union - win over St. Lawrence 30-6 (+8.3)

6. Martin Luther - win over Minnesota-Morris 14-7 (+6.5)

7. Southwestern - win over Sul Ross State 29-27 (+6.0)

8. Pacific - win over Pacific Lutheran 24-20 (+5.7)

9. Hampden-Sydeney - win over Guilford 21-18 (+4.9)

10. Plymouth State - win over Bridgewater State 17-7 (+3.9)


This is the second week in a row that Wheaton topped the list of biggest upset. They're still in the Top 10 nationally thanks to the strength of their first three games (which all graded out in the Top 10 in each week). Something is definitely amiss since the hazing allegations came out.


BVU made their second big upset of the year (and put Dubuque on the wrong side of this list for the second time, too). They beat Central a few weeks ago, and then this week beat the IIAC's preseason favorite with a 72 yard two-minute drill at the end of regulation.


McDaniel is also in the same spot as last week, losing to a Dickinson team that had been blown out by every other decent team on their schedule. I would like to try to find a silver lining for McDaniel, but when your offense grades out in the 6th percentile... yikes.

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